NSE theme rotation,supported by sample evidence,tempered by real caveats.
Data-backed, momentum-driven, but risk-aware. The primary evidence on this page is the verified 10-theme sample reproduction. The live proxy monitor sits below as a separate diagnostics lane and does not stand in for full 127-theme verification.
Verdict
Research only
Sample edge
+26.48% CAGR
Live proxy edge
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Data coverage
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Sample CAGR
39.85%
10 NSE themes reproduction
Edge vs Benchmark
26.48%
vs Nifty 500
Net Cost Case
31.43%
High-friction sample
Win Rate
52.33%
1160 completed trades
Performance At A Glance
Chart moved into first viewport
Strategy beats benchmark by +26.48% CAGR in the verified sample.
Truth Boundary
Primary evidence
Nov 26, 2018 to May 11, 2026 across 367 weekly rebalances.
Verified sample uses 10 NSE themes, not the full 127-theme universe.
Exact full-universe verification was not possible without the complete historical constituent map.
Source Coverage
Backend proxy diagnostics
Loading backend source coverage.
Benchmark: Loading.
Missing or stale source detail should stay visible because it can change trade eligibility and results.
Main Caveat
Implementation risk
Fixed 5% sizing for new entries can accidentally create hidden leverage if surviving holdings are not rebalanced and exit cash is insufficient. The engine must cap fresh buys by real free cash, not by target weights alone.
Strategy Explainer
Weekly theme momentum first, stock selection second.
The logic is simple enough for investors to follow, but strict enough that implementation details matter. The key failure mode is not the ranking formula. It is getting sizing and exits wrong.
Build theme baskets
Normalize constituent stocks from first available date and equal-weight them into a basket series.
Rank 9-week excess ROC
Compute 45-trading-day basket ROC, then subtract Nifty 500 ROC over the same window.
Select top 5 themes
Keep only the five strongest themes each weekly rebalance cycle.
Pick top 4 stocks per theme
Inside each selected theme, rank valid stocks by 1-month return and keep the four leaders.
Target 5% per new stock
Each fresh entry aims for 5% of current portfolio value, long-only, cash allowed, no shorting.
Exit full theme on dropout
If a theme falls out of the top five, sell all positions from that theme at the next rebalance.
Hold survivors unchanged
Themes that stay in the top five are not rebalanced internally unless an exit rule forces a sale.
Cash-Safe Sizing
Correct portfolio behavior
New 5% positions should only be funded from actual free cash created by exits or residual cash already sitting in the portfolio.
If fewer than four valid stocks exist inside a theme, or cash is not sufficient, the remainder stays in cash.
That preserves the long-only design instead of silently creeping above available capital.
Not Yet Proven
What this page does not claim
The strategy appears directionally valid.
The verified sample supports a real momentum edge.
The exact headline claim is still not fully verified.
Verified Sample Performance
This is the primary evidence lane.
The section below uses the verified sample reproduction numbers you supplied. Where the full weekly path was not available, the chart is explicitly labelled as an illustrative cumulative path inferred from listed yearly returns.
Illustrative Equity Growth
Inferred from listed yearly returns, not an exact weekly curve
Exact sample final values are shown in the stat cards and table. This chart is an illustrative cumulative path inferred from listed annual returns because the full weekly equity series was not provided.
CAGR Comparison
Verified sample vs benchmark
Final value
Rs 1.22Cr
Benchmark value
Rs 25.5L
Profit factor
2.215
Win rate
52.33%
Avg hold
45.79d
Rebalances
367
Best rebalance
+10.59%
Worst rebalance
-17.10%
Year-by-Year Returns
Verified sample reproduction
Annual Excess Edge
Verified sample minus benchmark
Costs And Realism
Net returns matter more than gross storytelling.
The verified sample still looks attractive after reasonable friction assumptions. The live proxy monitor is shown separately because its current cost-adjusted read is materially weaker.
Verified Sample After Costs
Primary evidence for net expectations
Gross sample: No transaction costs modelled
Low-friction case: Brokerage and lower impact assumptions
High-friction case: Higher slippage and trading frictions
Current Live Proxy Read
Secondary diagnostics lane
Live proxy unavailable
The investor page still renders the verified sample evidence, but live proxy diagnostics could not be loaded right now.
Where Costs Bite
Real-world drag sources
Brokerage and exchange fees stack up because the sleeve can refresh weekly.
STT matters more when a dropped theme forces full sleeve exits, not just trims.
Impact cost can dominate modelled friction once leadership narrows into thinner names.
Why It May Work
Theme momentum can capture clustering that stock momentum alone may miss.
This section remains deliberately conceptual. It explains why the signal could work, while the performance claims stay anchored to explicitly labelled evidence sections above.
Theme persistence
Narrative-led capital often moves in clusters, so sector or theme leadership can persist longer than single-stock leadership.
Relative strength clustering
Multiple leaders inside one basket can confirm that the move is broad, not just one idiosyncratic stock.
Leadership rotation
A weekly process can keep capital pointed toward fresh winners while cutting buckets that stop leading.
Sample support in key years
The verified sample was strongest in 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024, which is directionally consistent with narrative-led market leadership.
Live Proxy Monitor
Useful diagnostics, not the headline proof.
This lane is intentionally narrower and more cautious. It shows what the current proxy engine is doing today, while also making its benchmark mismatch, shorter history, and smaller universe impossible to miss.
What The Live Proxy Still Cannot Prove
Diagnostics lane
Live proxy diagnostics are unavailable right now, so the verified sample remains the only evidence lane rendered.
Live Proxy Snapshot
Live payload unavailable
Benchmark
Unavailable
Universe
Unavailable
Cash
Rs 0
Net liquidation value
Rs 0
Current Bucket Rank Table
Audit view of active proxy sleeves
No active proxy buckets
The live proxy payload currently has no active sleeves. That usually means the smaller proxy universe did not produce qualifying current leaders under its weekly rules.
Holdings
0 positions | 0.0% exposure | 0.0% cash
Total exposure
Rs 0
Cash
Rs 0
Sort
WEIGHT
No live holdings
Live proxy diagnostics are still loading.
Latest Rebalance Actions
Why the engine bought, held, skipped, or exited
No fresh action log
Latest weekly action log is still loading.
Recent Proxy Trade Log
Auditability from the backend trade history
No recent trade records
Backtest trade history was not available from the live proxy backend, so this audit table cannot yet show recent closed trades.
Risks And Biases
Trust comes from showing where the strategy breaks.
This section now includes the missing capacity surface. It separates conceptual bias risks from implementation-level scaling constraints that show up even in proxy tests.
Survivorship bias
Modern listed survivors can make old theme baskets look cleaner than they really were if delisted or broken names are absent.
Theme-definition look-ahead
Applying today’s theme taxonomy to 2018 history can leak future knowledge into old classifications.
Liquidity and slippage
Small and midcap theme leaders can be hard to scale, so paper returns can degrade sharply once position sizes matter.
Hidden leverage bug
If survivors are held unchanged while new entries are forced to 5% without enough exit cash, gross exposure can creep above 100%.
Regime dependence
Momentum can struggle in whipsaw, mean-reverting, or event-driven periods even when long-run results look attractive.
Capacity Illustration
Proxy sweep with ADV 2% deployability cap
| Portfolio size | Proxy CAGR | Liquidity skips | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rs 10L | 31.02% | 0 | No deployability stress in the proxy ADV 2% illustration. |
| Rs 1Cr | 30.92% | 13 | Capacity stress starts to appear even before multi-crore sizing. |
| Rs 5Cr | 25.98% | 59 | Return compression becomes visible as more names fail the deployability cap. |
Why This Matters
Scaling is not linear
Backtests can look clean at Rs 10L and degrade meaningfully by low-crore capital once more entries fail investability checks.
That means the right question is not only “does it work?” but also “at what size does it stop working as modelled?”
The page now states that openly instead of implying frictionless scalability.
Claimed Vs Verified
Three separate lanes, not one blurred story.
The table below separates user-claimed results, verified sample reproduction, and the live proxy monitor. That prevents the live proxy or the sample reproduction from quietly impersonating the full 127-theme claim.
Comparison Table
Claimed headline vs verified sample vs live proxy
| Metric | Claimed by user | Verified sample | Live proxy monitor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Period | Nov 26, 2018 to May 15, 2026 | Nov 26, 2018 to May 11, 2026 | Unavailable |
| Universe scope | 127 themes claimed | 10 NSE themes sample | Unavailable |
| Benchmark | Nifty 500 | Nifty 500 | Unavailable |
| Final value | Rs 2,22,74,731 | Rs 1,21,89,048 | — |
| CAGR | 51.50% | 39.85% | — |
| Trades | 1,597 | 1,160 | — |
| Win rate | 50.00% | 52.33% | — |
| Profit factor | 1.750 | 2.215 | — |
Why Exact Replication Is Pending
Main data gap
Exact full-universe verification was not possible without the complete 127-theme historical constituent map. That is why this page now treats the sample reproduction as primary evidence and the live proxy feed as diagnostics rather than pretending a proxy sector map solves the historical data problem.
User-Claimed Headline
Secondary until full-universe rebuild exists
Final value
Rs 2.23Cr
Claimed CAGR
51.50%
Trades
1,597
Profit factor
1.75x
Investor Takeaway
Promising, but not yet institutional-grade proven.
The page now tells the story in the right order: verified sample reproduction first, live proxy diagnostics second, user-claimed headline third. That makes the theme rotation thesis easier to trust, because the analysis no longer hides benchmark mismatches, short proxy history, empty live states, or scaling constraints.
What sample evidence says
The verified sample supports a real momentum edge and justifies deeper research.
What still needed
Full 127-theme historical reconstruction, benchmark alignment, deeper liquidity constraints, and a fully auditable constituent map.